India Ratings and Research predicts the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will maintain the repo rate at 5.25 per cent throughout FY27, despite potential inflationary pressures from higher fuel prices, with inflation expected to remain within the central bank's tolerance band.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has opted to keep its key interest rates unchanged at 5.25%, anticipating a global economic recovery following a ceasefire in the US/Israel-Iran conflict, despite ongoing inflationary pressures and currency fluctuations.
'The US reciprocal tariff has added another element of uncertainty and the central bank may prefer to wait and get further clarity.'
'As the Budget has taken some measures to spur growth, similar action from the MPC may be expected.'
Dr Nagesh Kumar, one of the three new MPC members, wanted the MPC to reduce the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%.
The RBI's monetary policy committee is expected cut benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in its policy review meeting next month to push growth, India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) said on Thursday. "We expect the headline inflation in FY25 to cool off to 4.7 per cent. Monetary easing may be limited to 75 bps in FY26," Ind-Ra Chief Economist and Head Public Finance, Devendra Kumar Pant said.
The weakening of inflation, prospects of economic growth, geopolitical uncertainty and comfortable system liquidity may result in the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to cut the repo rate by another 25 basis points, opine top economists. They also said the external economic pressures like trade policies and others would require continued RBI's accommodative stance and policy support for the Indian industry to sustain the growth.
Since February 2025, the RBI has reduced the policy rate by 100 basis points. In its previous policy review in June, it had trimmed the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.5 per cent.
The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday decided to keep the policy rate unchanged for the ninth time in a row, saying food inflation remains stubborn. The rate increase cycle was paused in April last year after six consecutive rate hikes, aggregating to 250 basis points since May 2022.
After a 25 basis point rate cut in December, the RBI on Friday decided to pause on the policy rate front amid geopolitical uncertainties.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the repo rate cut in the February meeting of the monetary policy committee (MPC) was due to inflation aligning with the target and recognising the fact that monetary policy is forward-looking.
'The real repo rate is very high in terms of core inflation.'
The Indian rupee is highly vulnerable among Asian currencies, with Barclays and MUFG warning of a potential depreciation towards 100/$ if the West Asia conflict persists, driven by widening current account deficits and elevated crude oil prices.
Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Friday said the key policy rates will remain at low levels for a long period and may go down even further.
The Indian banking system's net liquidity surplus has reached a four-year high of Rs 4.57 trillion, driven by maturing government securities, with further maturities expected to push the surplus to around 5 trillion.
Since February 2025, the RBI has reduced the policy rate by 100 basis points. In its previous policy review in April, it had also trimmed the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6 per cent.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will maintain the policy repo rate at 6.5 per cent during its upcoming June 8 announcement, considering the easing of retail inflation in April and the potential for further decline, indicating the effectiveness of previous policy rate actions, anticipate experts. Headed by Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das, a meeting of the six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled for June 6-8. The decision of the 43rd meeting of the MPC would be announced on Thursday, June 8.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday decided to keep the policy rate unchanged for fourth time in a row as it maintains a tight vigil on inflation. The rate increase cycle was paused in April after six consecutive rate hikes aggregating to 250 basis points since May 2022. Announcing the bi-monthly monetary policy on Friday, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent.
India's banking system is grappling with a persistent liquidity surplus exceeding Rs 5 trillion, driven by significant government spending and bond redemptions, leading market participants to anticipate the Reserve Bank of India will step up Variable Rate Reserve Repo operations to manage the excess funds.
The Federation of Indian Export Organisations welcomed the RBI's decision to cut repo rate and said it would augur well for the exports, while asking for slashing rupee credit by 1.0-1.5% in view of the appreciating domestic currency.
Former central bank deputy governor S S Tarapore today said the Reserve Bank of India's monetary measures to contain inflation have been "appropriate" as of today
The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday decided to keep policy rate unchanged for the sixth time in a row as it maintains a tight vigil on inflation. The rate increase cycle was paused in April last year after six consecutive rate hikes aggregating to 250 basis points since May 2022.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may go for a hike of up to 0.25 per cent in the reverse repo rate at which the RBI absorbs excess liquidity and leave the repo rate at which it lends, to narrow the policy rate corridor, a British brokerage said on Thursday. "Growth concerns amid spread of the Omicron variant and relatively benign inflation out-turns provide the RBI with enough room to maintain its growth-supportive monetary policies," analysts at Barclays said, ahead of the resolution announcement next week. The RBI will hike the reverse repo rate by 0.20-0.25 per cent, given its liquidity management actions, it said.
Reserve Bank of India Governor Bimal Jalan said on Wednesday that the central bank had a soft and flexible stance on altering the repo rate if monetary conditions warranted.\n\n\n\n
Indian carmakers experienced a robust start to the new fiscal year, with an estimated 4.5 lakh passenger vehicles sold in April, marking a 27 per cent increase year-on-year, attributed to factors like GST 2.0, repo rate cuts, and income tax benefits.
The repo rate, at which the central bank lends short-term money to other banks, will continue to stay at 6 per cent.
Uncertainties stemming from the West Asia crisis and its potential impact on inflation and economic growth were key factors in the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision to maintain the status quo on interest rates, according to the recently released MPC meeting minutes.
The central bank has also left the Bank Rate and the Cash Reserve Ratio unchanged at 6 per cent and 5 per cent, respectively, in the annual policy announcement 2007 released on Tuesday.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday hiked repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.90 per cent in order to control the rising inflation, keeping in line with the aggressive policies of central banks and the volatile markets prevalent across economies. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das announced the rate hike today. In the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) that started on Wednesday, five of the members of the MPC voted to hike the key lending rate, repo rate, by 50-basis points (bps).
The Reserve Bank of India has no plans to change the repo rate as of now, a senior official told Reuters of Friday.
Reserve Bank of India Deputy Governor Rakesh Mohan said on Wednesday that the repo rate would not be cut right now.
'Rate cut looks unlikely and there is reason to believe that the cycle is over.'
Bond market expects the Reserve Bank of India to cut the repo rate after the government buys back gilt worth over Rs 84,000 crore (Rs 840 billion), hopefully this month.
Reserve Bank of India governor Bimal Jalan reiterated Monday the bank's soft monetary bias but said there was no immediate plan to cut the short-term repo rate.
Monetary policy committee had recommended no change in the key rate.
In September, the headline inflation accelerated to a seven-month high of 6.46 per cent, while the retail inflation quickened to 9.84 per cent.
Reserve Bank on Tuesday kept the bank rate and CRR unchanged, but hiked repo and reverse repo rate by 0.25 per cent to 5.5 per cent and 6.5 per cent respectively as part of measures to rein in inflation.
Reserve Bank of India Governor Bimal Jalan said on Friday that there was no proposal to lower the short-term benchmark repo rate now.
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